James Atama
John Denton noted that the Red Sox, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Dodgers, and Angels are among the few teams that Nolan Arenado might agree to join by waiving his no-trade clause, given a suitable trade arrangement with the Cardinals. Four weeks after his initial comments, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam indicate that Boston is still “a preferred destination” for Arenado. However, it’s uncertain whether the Red Sox and Cardinals are close to finalizing a deal or if Boston is eager to acquire Arenado.
Adding Arenado would address some key areas of need for the Red Sox this offseason. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow mentioned earlier this week that the team is in search of “a right-handed bat out of the middle of the lineup” due to a surplus of left-handed hitters. Signing one of the best defensive third basemen ever would enhance Boston’s weak infield defense and reunite him with his friend and former Rockies teammate, Trevor Story.
One challenge is that the Red Sox already have star third baseman Rafael Devers. Although Arenado is open to changing positions if necessary, Devers’ agent firmly stated last November that Devers plans to stay at third base. It seems unlikely that Arenado would willingly switch positions for someone who is a lesser fielder like Devers. If a trade were to occur, it’s likely that Devers would shift to first base or DH, complicating matters for Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida, who have been part of trade discussions this winter, sometimes in conjunction with each other. Casas is viewed as the more valuable asset and while Breslow claimed “we’re certainly not shopping him,” it doesn’t mean Casas is untouchable. Cotillo and McAdam report there is still speculation around the possibility of trading Casas for young pitching to facilitate other roster changes.
It’s possible the Red Sox want to trade Casas first to enhance their leverage in that deal, as an impending positional crowd could decrease their negotiating strength. Breslow likely doesn’t prefer to trade Casas just to free up payroll, which is why a linked attempt involving Yoshida and Casas was part of a broader strategy to acquire Luis Castillo from Seattle.
Financial aspects are also crucial in any potential Arenado trade, as he is owed $74 million over the next three seasons. Due to deferrals and $10 million covered by the Rockies, the net value of Arenado’s contract is reported at around $60 million. The Cardinals’ primary goal in trading Arenado is to minimize this financial obligation, especially after a blocked deal with the Astros that would have shifted substantial salary responsibilities to Houston.
Theoretically, the Red Sox could absorb Arenado’s full contract while remaining under the $241 million luxury tax threshold, as estimates place their current payroll around $212 million. It is not clear how much budget Breslow has this offseason, as the Red Sox have shown interest in several free agents but have spent conservatively thus far. They may be able to persuade the Cardinals to take on more of Arenado’s salary if promising prospects are included in the exchange. Chaim Bloom’s role in these deliberations adds an interesting dimension since he has an extensive understanding of Boston’s farm system from his previous role as the Red Sox CBO.
Acquiring Arenado would be less costly overall than signing Alex Bregman, another top third baseman that interests the Red Sox. Despite this, Boston is still pursuing Bregman, who has ties to manager Alex Cora from their time together in Houston, as well as his friend Walker Buehler, who recently joined the Sox. Buehler mentioned to reporters that he is advocating for Bregman to come to Boston, even in his short time with the team.
Regarding other targets, it remains unclear if the Red Sox are still in the running for Roki Sasaki. Earlier in the week, Sasaki’s agent provided updates on his client’s search for a Major League team, without stating if the right-hander’s meetings with interested clubs had wrapped up.
The Red Sox were not among the seven teams that have reportedly spoken with Sasaki so far, and there have been no confirmed meetings between him and Boston since the agent’s last update. As of yesterday, Rob Bradford from WEEI.com reported that the Sox have not heard they are out of contention for Sasaki, leaving the situation uncertain.
