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Breaking News: Mitch Marner’s Shocking Report Card Revealed
2023-24 Report Card: Mitch Marner May 23, 2024, by JP Gambatese Mitch Marner entered 2023-24 with the goal of breaking the 100-point barrier for the first time in his career, following two seasons of 95 or more points.
Playing with 69-goal scorer Auston Matthews definitely boosted those ambitions, but injuries limited him to 69 games and kept him from reaching triple digits.
In the postseason, many frustrated Toronto Maple Leafs supporters blamed the series defeat to the Bruins on Marner’s “disappointing” playoff run, describing him as a soft player who cannot compete in the playoffs.
Regular Season While Marner’s point production was there (he paced for 100 points for the third straight season), his underlying numbers suffered a severe fall from what they had been in previous years.
At 5v5, his expected goals share (xGF%) of 52.89% was the lowest in his career since 2018-19, and even lower than his previous three seasons (55.22%, 61.84%, and 57.51%, respectively).
His high-danger chance share (HDCF%) declined dramatically from the previous three seasons, dropping to 54.61%, much below the 56.03%, 62.42%, and 60.90% he had in those campaigns.
His rate metrics provide an interesting, if unsurprising, conclusion to his season – offense remained consistent from previous seasons, but his defensive game lagged significantly in comparison.
When Marner was on the ice, the Maple Leafs scored 2.86 expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60), which is somewhat lower than last season but roughly in line with his historical stats. Defensively, the Maple Leafs allowed 2.55 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60), the second-highest record of his career.
He typically hovered around the 2.1-2.3 xGA/60 area, but he was definitely not his usual defensive self in 2023-24. Individually, Marner remained the same player. His 0.95 5v5 goals per 60 minutes were the third-highest in his career. He also had more 5v5 shot attempts per 60 minutes.
Still, regardless of the metrics, Marner put together an 85-point campaign in just 69 games. He continued his regular-season legacy as one of the best forwards in recent Maple Leafs history and hoped to extend that success into the playoffs.
2023-24 regular season grade: B
Playoffs
Unfortunately, his first-round performance against the Bruins, much like the Maple Leafs’ overall play, was disappointing, especially so considering his prior track record. He put up just three points — one goal and two assists — in the seven Round 1 games, substantially lower than the near-point-per-game pace he’d laid out in his previous 50 playoff games.
His xGF% barely sat above 50%, which is jarring considering that he had eclipsed 60% in three of the previous four playoff runs. Not only was his xGA/60 of 2.5 the worst mark of his postseason career, but his xGF/60 was the lowest of his last four postseasons. Individual metrics worsened and, for the first time in his career, he didn’t register a single point on the power play in the playoffs.
In Game 4, the Maple Leafs’ top three players got into a bench fight, expressing their dissatisfaction. Marner received the brunt of the criticism from teammate and fellow star William Nylander after expressing his dissatisfaction with Matthews on the bench about a previous play.
Still, as frustrating as the first round was for Marner and the Maple Leafs, it’s worth noting that he wasn’t outplayed at 5v5 in the series; it was simply horrible in comparison to what we’ve come to expect.
Marner’s future with the Maple Leafs is uncertain.
Since his disappointing postseason performance, several rumors have circulated about his future with the team. In fact, one hockey analyst believes there is a “5% chance” that the great winger will stay on the squad during the off-season.
With significant changes to the Maple Leafs’ roster, including a new coach who has previously criticized a finesse-centric system, Marner is expected to play his final season in Toronto.
However, given his track record as one of the league’s most competent players, they should fetch a significant profit.
